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Today’s Real Estate News 10.29.2013

Summary:

Today, DS News reports about how much real estate us investors have purchased since 2011. Realtytrac shares the opinions on leading brokers regarding the QRM proposal and how the foreclosure rate has been increasing in New York City and Long Island since Hurricane Sandy. According to CNN  Money, home prices are still increasing. Realtor.org shows their approval in delaying flood insurance increases. The MBAA’s president & CEO stresses a housing policy balance.  According to the Housing Wire, Hensarling is pointing the finger at Dodd-Frank for the mortgage market’s “volatility,” the Special Inspector General for TARP outlines the failures of the “Hardest Hit Fund,” the underdogs of mortgage servicing are forecasted to rule the mortgage market according to mortgage servicing experts, mortgage originations are most likely to decrease and the FHFA states that mortgage rates are to continue to climb. Bloomberg reports that consumer confidence has decreased the most since August 2011 and BofA could be forced to pay somewhere between $5-8 BILLION to settle federal claims while it’s Countrywide unit and investors in mortgage-backed securities are expected to ask a federal judge to overrule FDIC’s objections and settle for $500 Million.

Investors’ Home Purchases Total $1 Trillion Since 2011
“Since 2011, investors have purchased more than 950,000 homes; and with 370,000 purchases so far this year, they have already surpassed the number of purchases they made in either of the past two years, according to a new report from RealtyTrac.”

Leading Brokers Weigh in on Impact of New QRM Proposal, Reveling Concerns Over Mortgage Rules Taking Effect in 2014
“RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for comprehensive housing and real estate data, today released opinions from five leading real estate brokers across the country on the impact to the real estate market and mortgage industry posed by the newly proposed Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) rules set to take effect in January as a result of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act signed into law in 2010.”

New York City and Long Island Foreclosures Continue to Increase a Year After Hurricane Sandy Hit
“One year after Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the U.S. eastern seaboard, RealtyTrac® (www.realtytrac.com), the nation’s leading source for comprehensive housing data, today reported that foreclosure activity in the first nine months of 2013 is up 33 percent compared to the first nine months of 2012 in the 7-county region including the five boroughs of New York and Long Island.”

Home prices continue to climb
“Home prices posted the largest annual gain since housing bubble days in August, although the month-over-month gain slowed for the fourth straight month.”

Realtors® Applaud Bipartisan Legislation to Delay Flood Insurance Rate Increases
“The following is a statement by National Association of Realtors® President Gary Thomas:

“The bipartisan ‘Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act’ introduced today in the Senate by Sens. Robert Mendendez, D-N.J.; Johnny Isakson, R-Ga.; and Mary Landrieu, D-La., and in the House by Reps. Michael Grimm, R-N.Y., and Maxine Waters, D-Calif., will help millions of homeowners who are facing sudden and extreme increases in flood insurance premiums, which are an unintended consequence of legislation to reform the National Flood Insurance Program.”

Stevens Calls for a Constructive Balance in Housing Policy
“Washington, DC (October 28, 2013) — David H. Stevens, President & CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today delivered the following remarks at the association’s 100th Annual Convention and Expo in Washington, DC.”

Hensarling blames Dodd-Frank for mortgage market volatility
“Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-TX, received thousands of cheers from attendees during the Mortgage Banker’s Association 100th Annual Convention and Expo Tuesday as he painted the Dodd-Frank Act as the real threat to mortgage finance reform.”

SIGTARP details Hardest Hit Fund failures
“The Hardest Hit Fund, which was launched by the Treasury to help families in areas stricken by the housing bust, fell short of its stated goals, the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP) warns.”

Smaller competitors may dominate servicing in the near future
“Mortgage servicing experts foresee a future market dominated by specialists such as Ocwen Financial (OCN) and Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM), while big, traditional banks head for the hills when it comes to servicing to escape litigation and costs.”

Mortgage originations expected to fall 32% in 2014
“Mortgage originations are estimated to reach a total value of $1.2 trillion in 2014, a 32% drop from 2013 levels, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Tuesday.”

FHFA: Mortgage rates continue to climb
“Mortgage interest rates continued their upward climb, with contract mortgage interest rates increasing 0.11% from August to September, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s index of new mortgage contracts.”

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Slumps by Most Since August 2011
“Confidence among U.S. consumers declined in October by the most since August 2011 as the budget impasse and debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington took a toll on outlooks.”

BofA Accord With FHFA Could Cost $8 Billion, Fitch Says
“Bank of America Corp., the second-biggest U.S. lender, may have to pay $5 billion to $8 billion to settle federal claims tied to faulty mortgages after a rival lender’s deal set “a relatively high bar,” Fitch Ratings said.”

Countrywide, Investors Seek Approval of $500 Million Pact
“Bank of America Corp.’s Countrywide unit and investors in its devalued residential mortgage-backed securities will ask a federal judge to overrule objections from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and approve a $500 million class-action settlement.”

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Today’s Real Estate News 10.24.2013

Summary:
In today’s news, CNN Money shares about “impact investing,” and how 50% of the country’s foreclosed homes are still being occupied. Reuters reports that jobless claims remain high yet manufacturing is slowing. According to Market Watch, BofA is slashing 3,000 mortgage jobs. CNBC states that 9 banks are being probed on mortgage-backed securities and Fed easing’s effect on mortgage rates. Mortgage apps fall less than a whole percentage according to the UPI. Housing Wire reports that the fed “proposes minimum liquidity requirements” for the big banks. Bloomberg is full of news today sharing that Bank of America’s Countrywide is being held liable for selling thousands of defective loans to Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, the city of Vallejo is set to sell water-bonds for the 1st time since before it’s 2008 bankruptcy filing, all-cash buyers make up nearly 50% of all home sales and Warren Buffett says that while the housing market has made some headway, it still has a way to go. Dr. Housing Bubble shares the story of how it’s possible that a 932 square foot home can be priced at $895,000.  

Can you make money and feel good about it?
“Want to make money while helping the people around you? Impact investing may have the answer.”

Half of nation’s foreclosed homes still occupied
“Foreclosure sounds like the end of the line, but actual eviction can take months or years — even after the bank has repossessed a home.”

U.S. jobless claims stay elevated, manufacturing slows
“(Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week, but a lingering backlog of applications in California makes it difficult to get a good read of labor market conditions.”

Bank of America to cut 3,000 jobs in mortgage unit
“NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Bank of America Corp. Inc. BAC -0.25% will cut approximately 3,000 mortgage jobs in the fourth-quarter as it looks to make cutbacks in its expenses, said a person familiar with the matter.”

Jury Finds Bank of America Liable in Mortgage Case
“Updated, 9:20 p.m. | Bank of America, one of the nation’s largest banks, was found liable on Wednesday of having sold defective mortgages, a jury decision that will be seen as a victory for the government in its aggressive effort to hold banks accountable for their role in the housing crisis.”

US task force probes nine banks on mortgage-backed securities
“At least nine banks face investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice into their sales of mortgage-backed securities as part of an effort by the task force that reached the $13 billion pact with JPMorgan Chase, people familiar with the matter say.”

What more Fed easing really means for mortgage rates
“Now that the Fed is expected to keep its foot on the easy money pedal for months to come, don’t expect to see interest rates go much lower.”

U.S. mortgage applications fall less than 1 percent
“WASHINGTON, Oct. 23 (UPI) — U.S. mortgage activity dropped less than 1 percent last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.”

Fed proposes minimum liquidity requirements for big banks
“For the first time in its regulatory history, the Federal Reserve Board is proposing a rule that would create a standardized, minimum liquidity requirement for banks deemed systemically important.”

BofA’s Countrywide Found Liable for Defrauding Fannie Mae
“Bank of America Corp.’s Countrywide unit was found liable by a jury for selling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac thousands of defective loans in the first mortgage-fraud case brought by the U.S. government to go to trial.”

Vallejo Water-Bond Deal to Be City’s First Since 2008 Bankruptcy
“Vallejo, the Northern California city that sought Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection in 2008, is set to sell about $19 million in water-revenue bonds next week in its first municipal-debt sale since the filing.”

Families Blocked by Investors From Buying U.S. Homes
“Home purchases by institutional buyers reached a record high in September and all-cash buyers accounted for almost half of sales as investors responded to rising demand from renters.”

Buffett Says Gains in Housing Fall Short of Equilibrium
“Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), said the U.S. housing market has made progress and still has a way to go in recovering.”

The Grand Republic of Santa Monica: 932 square feet for $895,000. How housing built before the Great Depression can fetch wild prices.
“The mania in certain California neighborhoods is so dramatic that my e-mail box is now filled on a daily basis with Real Homes of Genius.  It isn’t as high as it was in 2007 at the apex of the last bubble but I’m seeing some pretty outrageous properties being listed for pipedream prices.  Targeted markets are definitely benefitting from the investor fever.  First, many of the homes being sold are actually being sold for the land.  Given the headline cost plus construction costs this is a very tiny market segment here.  Yet the froth is very obvious in these regions.  Santa Monica is prime Westside housing.  It is hard for anyone outside of the region to understand the crazy prices in Santa Monica.  Even those in the region have a hard time understanding.  Today we’ll focus on this area and pull up a property that only an investor could love.  Welcome to the wonderful Republic of Santa Monica.”

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Today’s Real Estate News 10.22.2013

Summary: CNN Money reports that the unemployment rate has fallen yet hiring has slowed. Fortune explains how the jobs report won’t be accurate for the next few months. Reuters shares that U.S. construction spending is showing hopeful signs in a 4 ½ year high. Bloomberg reports that lenders are shrinking in the mortgage business, BofA is said to endure three more legal probes into its’ mortgage-bond sales and China’s real estate bubble is affecting Manhattan. CNBC explains how the JPMorgan deal could affect homebuyers in qualifying for a mortgage. The Motley Fool shares how the online real estate market has become a huge aspect of the business and Fox Business educates on why location is such an important role in real estate.

Unemployment falls but hiring slows

“The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since November 2008, but the government’s latest jobs report still shows a muddled picture of the economy.”

Why the jobs report has become meaningless

“FORTUNE — Employers added 148,000 to their payrolls in September, about 20% less than economists expected and the third smallest monthly increase in the past year. But the unemployment rate dropped to 7.2%, which is the lowest level in nearly five years. And the number of people actively looking for work was up, meaning people are more optimistic about their prospects for finding work.”

U.S. construction spending approaches 4-1/2 year high

“(Reuters) – U.S. construction spending hit a near 4-1/2 year high in August, boosted by increases in both private and public outlays, a hopeful sign for third-quarter economic growth.”

Shrinking Lenders in Mortgage Hub Cut Into Recovery: Real Estate

“CashCall Inc., a lender run by racehorse aficionado Paul Reddam, is one of the mortgage industry’s biggest office tenants in Orange County, California. It’s about to get smaller.”

BofA Said to Face Three More Probes of Mortgage-Bond Sales

“Bank of America Corp., sued by U.S. attorneys in August over an $850 million mortgage bond, faces three more Justice Department civil probes over mortgage-backed securities, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation.”

China’s Real Estate Bubble Hits Manhattan

“Fosun International Ltd., a Chinese conglomerate that invests in everything from steel to pharmaceuticals to Club Med, has agreed to buy the office tower at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza from JPMorgan Chase & Co. for a whopping $725 million. This isn’t an isolated incident.”

Jumbo loan availability lifts Chicago housing

“In recent years, the inability to access higher-priced mortgages left many Chicago residents – especially those pursuing properties valued above the area’s conforming loan limit – without the option of moving up to newer, larger homes.”

FHA single-family mortgage guarantee program squeezes taxpayers

“The Federal Housing Administration’s single-family mortgage guarantee program moved dramatically from having a net savings to costing taxpayers money as higher-than-expected borrower defaults hit the firm.”

How the JPMorgan deal could curtail credit

“The Justice Department’s potential $13 billion settlement with JPMorgan may go a long way toward appeasing consumers’ anger at big banks for the financial crisis, but it probably won’t help those same consumers get a mortgage. In fact, it may make it harder.”

How to Play the Online Real Estate Market

“The Internet has become the first place to look for real estate. In 2007, more than 80% of home buyers actively used the Internet as part of their research process before buying real estate and before contacting an agent. This proportion keeps increasing, making online real estate a very attractive market. However, competition in this space is very fierce. Most real estate agents and companies have already built their own sites, and invest heavily in online marketing.”

Why Location Matters in Real Estate

“Ask just about any real estate agent to list the three most important things a property should have, and you’ll likely hear: “location, location, location.” That phrase has been in use at least since 1926, according to The New York Times, and is just as relevant now as it was then.”

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Today’s Real Estate News 10.21.2013

Summary:
CNBC shares Jamie Dimon’s, of JPMorgan, reaction to the bank’s settlement with the U.S. & that the Fed might not be tapering for months due to the government shutdown. CNN Money shares  “5 things to know about JPMorgan settlement.” Reuters reports that home sales in existing homes have fallen and home price appreciation is slowing. Bloomberg says the FHFA is holding banks accountable for their part in the burst of the housing bubble & it’s effects. According to the Review Journal, many layoffs can be attributed to slowing of the mortgage refinance boom. The Housing Wire states that investors are once again being attracted to RMBS, California received the most government aid in housing relief funding. Newsweek examines how much the government shutdown cost the U.S. Dr. Housing Bubble shares some great data in two different blog posts – 1. The continuing increase in renters & 2. What the 2014 California housing market may look like.  

‘We’re trying to get our problems behind us’: Dimon
“”We’re trying to get it resolved.” That’s what JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Monday, in reaction to news that the bank has reached a tentative $13 billion settlement with the U.S. Justice Department, the New York attorney general, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency over allegations of sales of shoddy mortgage securities.”

Fed’s Evans: Shutdown may delay taper by months
“The Fed may not begin tapering for months because the government shutdown has left the economic picture unclear, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told CNBC on Monday.”

Five things to know about JPMorgan settlement
“The tentative deal that JPMorgan Chase reached over the weekend with the Justice Department will cost the bank $13 billion, a record penalty.”

U.S. existing home sales fall, price appreciation slows
“(Reuters) – U.S. home resales fell in September and prices cooled as higher mortgage rates took the edge off the housing market recovery.”

Federal Housing Chief Holds Banks to Account
“Two years ago, the Federal Housing Finance Agency sued 18 banks for losses on $200 billion in private-label mortgage bonds purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That strategy is now paying off. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is negotiating a $13 billion settlement with the U.S. government that would feature a $4 billion payment to the FHFA. Today, Bloomberg News reports that Bank of America Corp. might pay the FHFA at least $6 billion for dodgy bonds issued before the crisis.”

FHFA Is Said to Seek at Least $6 Billion From BofA for MB
“A U.S. housing regulator is seeking at least $6 billion from Bank of America Corp. to settle civil claims the firm sold faulty mortgage bonds to government-backed finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to a person with direct knowledge of the discussions.”

Job layoffs as mortgage refinance boom slows
“A recent spike in interest rates has caused a decline in refinancing activity, a drop-off that has curtailed a two-year refinancing wave that started in 2011 and led to the nation’s largest banks shedding thousands of mortgage jobs.”

RMBS investors slowly gain steam in marketplace
“New and refinanced mortgages continue to move through the private-label residential mortgage-backed securities pipeline, attracting investors back into the space.”

California absorbs the most housing relief funds
“California received the largest portion of the Treasury’s Hardest Hit Fund as the state continued to recover from the large amount of unemployed and distressed homeowners impacted during the financial crisis.”

How the Shutdown Hammered the U.S. Economy
“How much has the government shutdown and the default threat cost us?”

Gen Renter: The continuing expansion of renters in the United States. A permanent generational shift.
“Never mistake luck with timing.  That is one lesson gamblers and so-called investors forget time and time again.  Even in baseball batting .300 is considered fantastic.  The rhetoric being uttered by some people is similar to what was being said only a few years ago.  Of course, the voices of the 5,000,000+ that went through foreclosure is largely drowned out similar to those that went all in with tech stocks right before the bust (where are the Pets.com investing geniuses?).  Not to quote an Alanis Morissette song but isn’t it ironic?  Suddenly folks that bought in 2011 or 2012 act as if they deserve a Ph.D. in economics.  Don’t mistake luck with investing acumen.  These people are caught up in the low rate, low inventory, and investor driven uptrend.  California is an excellent example of this.  Home prices are rising at astounding speeds pricing many out of the market.  It is no surprise that the number of renters in the state is surging as well (this is also a nationwide trend).  Investors dominate the market.  A cap rate of 4 percent may be reasonable when the Fed is artificially creating a negative interest rate environment.  This generational divide is going to continue and as usual, the US is going to undergo some dramatic changes including a growing renting class.”

30 years of booms and busts for California real estate: What does 2014 have in store for California real estate?
“For the first time in nearly two years the California housing market showed some brief signs of cooling.  The median price dipped and sales slowed down.  The mortgage rate turbulence of the summer is likely to show up in late fall since the process of buying a home with escrow takes a bit of time to register in the current data.  Although this is a current trend in terms of sales and prices we’ve also discussed why it is unlikely that California baby boomers will suddenly unload properties in mass.  These owners may have equity trapped in their home but the only way to unlock it is via selling the place or going with a reverse mortgage which is like raiding the bank before handing something over to your heirs.  California real estate has been in a perpetual cycle of booms and busts for nearly 30 years.  That is why it is interesting to see the 2014 forecast put out by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.).  The forecast is modest yet past history tells us a different story.”

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Today’s Real Estate News 10.17.13

Summary:
According to CNN Money, the government shutdown cost the U.S. economy $24 billion. Reuters states that Washington is the “biggest risk” to the nation’s economy. The LA Times reports that SoCal’s housing market is slowing, reports this week’s mortgage rates, a former BofA employee has allegedly taken $1 million in bribes to alter short sale transactions & BofA “outpaces other banks in mortgage settlement compliance.” The Housing Wire shares that the U.S. housing market took only a minor hit as a result of the government shutdown & that flippers are backing away due to a decline in real estate turnover.
CNBC reports that Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chair, won’t be required to testify in AIG case yet.

Shutdown took $24 billion bite out of economy
“The United States may have dodged an economic catastrophe by raising the debt ceiling and opening the government, but it didn’t emerge from the political debacle unscathed.”

Analysis: Washington becomes the biggest risk to the U.S. economy
“(Reuters) – Consensus may be hard to find in Washington these days, but many corporate executives and economists seem to agree on one point: the biggest risk to the world’s largest economy may be its own elected representatives.”

Southern California housing market slows after torrid rebound
“Southern California home buyers have apparently had their fill of bidding wars, home shortages and double-digit price hikes.”

Freddie Mac: Mortgage rates higher amid crisis; 30-year at 4.28%
“Fixed mortgage rates rose early this week amid the debt crisis, Freddie Mac’s latest survey showed, with lenders offering the 30-year home loan at an average of 4.28%, up from 4.23% a week earlier.”

Former BofA employee accused of taking bribes to rig short sales
“A former Bank of America Corp. employee who had dealt with delinquent mortgages has been arrested on federal charges of accepting more than $1 million in bribes to allow homes to be sold far below their market value.”

BofA outpaces other banks in mortgage settlement compliance
“Bank of America Corp. moved faster than Wells Fargo & Co., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. in satisfying its obligations to assist troubled borrowers under last year’s $25-billion national mortgage settlement, according to the agreement’s monitor.”

Housing recovery took a minor hit during government shutdown
“While the housing forecast remains mostly unchanged, the contentious negotiations that led to Congress temporarily raising the debt ceiling may have a lingering impact on consumer confidence in the housing market.”

Home flippers back away as real estate turnover activity declines
“Home flipping activity dipped 13% from the same period a year ago, with 32,993 single-family home flips recorded in the third quarter of 2013, RealtyTrac reported Thursday.”

Bernanke won’t have to testify in AIG case—for now
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke does not have to testify in the multibillion-dollar lawsuit by the former chief of American International Group against the United States over the insurer’s 2008 bailout, a federal appeals court said on Wednesday.”

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall Less Than Forecast on California
“More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week as California continued to work through a backlog, indicating it will take time to gauge the impact of the federal shutdown.”

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Today’s Real Estate News 10.16.2013

Summary:
CNN Money reports Bank of America posts a profit in the 3rd quarter, relieving investors after breaking even last year. Housing Wire shares that Fannie Mae is working on a risk-sharing transaction for next year, FHFA refinance activity slows, mortgage applications barely changed this week, National Mortgage Settlement is closer to meeting consumer-relief mandates and 67,000 home loan modifications have been finalized in August. Bloomberg states that U.S. Bancorp’s profit was little changed on lower bad loan provisions and homebuilder confidence has dropped more than it has in the past four months. Market Watch reports a 12% profit growth for PNC Financial. NY Times posts a profit for Blackrock. Reuters shares mortgage insurer MGIC profit.  CNBC reports that Fitch Ratings put the government’s “AAA credit rating on ‘rating watch negative.’” Dr. Housing Bubble shares a wealth of data in his blog post titled “The inefficient and fragile housing market: How trying to increase homeownership can backfire and add costs to regular home buyers.”

Bank of America swings to a profit
“Bank of America swung to a profit in the third quarter after breaking even last year. And investors breathed a sigh of relief.”

Fannie Mae plans next risk-sharing deal
“Mortgage giant Fannie Mae is working on another risk-sharing transaction for 2014, keeping in line with the firm’s plan to bring private capital back to the mortgage market.”

FHFA refinance activity declines
“Refinance volumes continued to decline in August as mortgage rates inched up from July levels.”

National Mortgage Settlement progress report: Big banks closer to finalizing consumer relief
“The mega lenders subjected to the National Mortgage Settlement are closer to meeting the consumer-relief mandates rolled out as part of a nationwide initiative to compensate borrowers for past servicing issues.”

67,000 home loan mods finalized in August
“Mortgage servicers modified 67,000 home loans in August, up 8% month-over-month, bringing the total amount of loans modified since 2007 to 5.4 million, Hope Now said Wednesday.”

U.S. Bancorp Profit Little Changed on Lower Bad Loan Provisions
“U.S. Bancorp, the nation’s biggest regional lender, said third-quarter net income was little changed as revenue fell and the bank set aside less for bad loans.”

PNC Financial’s profit up 12% on loan growth
“PNC Financial Services Group Inc.’s PNC +1.74% third-quarter earnings rose 12% as the regional lender’s results were helped by loan growth and improved credit quality, though net interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability slipped.”

BlackRock’s Profit Rose 14% in Third Quarter
“The giant money management firm BlackRock is now managing a record $4 trillion after customers put more money into its stock mutual funds and exchange traded funds.”

UPDATE 1-Mortgage insurer MGIC posts profit as housing market recovers
“Oct 16 (Reuters) – Mortgage insurer MGIC Investment Corp posted its second straight quarterly profit, after six years of losses, as a recovery in the U.S. housing market lowered the number of defaulters.”

Mortgage applications barely shift
“Mortgage applications barely changed during the week ending Oct. 11, rising only 0.3% from a week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.”

Fitch puts US AAA rating on rating watch negative
“Fitch Ratings put the US government’s “AAA” credit rating on ‘rating watch negative’ Tuesday, saying that the standstill on the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations risks undermining the effectiveness of the country’s government and political institutions.”

The inefficient and fragile housing market: How trying to increase homeownership can backfire and add costs to regular home buyers.
“It was interesting to see that this week, the Nobel Prize, the biggest prize in economics went to three US economists, one being “irrational exuberance” Robert Shiller.  Markets for the most part are presumed to be efficient and what Shiller points out is the weaknesses inherent with this model.  The housing market is a perfect example.  The market is extremely inefficient when it comes to housing.  We massively subsidize this sector of the economy with the outward notion of helping regular buyers but do the opposite.  For example, the Fed’s QE initiatives have caused asymmetrical bets from financial institutions into residential real estate.  Largely because of this financial structure we went from a real estate market in free fall to one highly subsidized by low rates causing investors to crowd out regular buyers.  Prices now surge while the homeownership rate falls.  Of course how can the market be called efficient when the Fed provides this below market interest rate to a select group of people?  Is the public privy to this?  What use is a low rate when a bigger player comes in with all cash?”

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Declines to Lowest in Four Months
“Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell more than forecast in October to a four-month low as rising interest rates and the budget battle in Washington stifled progress in the housing market.”