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Real Estate News 1.7.2014

Losing jobless benefits hurts people, local economies
“That’s how much the economy will slow down as a result of 1.3 million people losing their federal jobless benefits on Dec. 28, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.”

Senate Confirms Yellen as Fed Chair
“The United States Senate voted Monday to confirm Janet Yellen as chair of the Federal Reserve following Ben Bernanke’s departure at the end of January. She will be the first woman to take the job in the Fed’s history.”

Are ‘Tortoise’ Markets Beating ‘Hares’ In Home Price Recovery?
“After observing a “first in, first out” recovery over the past year in which markets hardest hit during the housing downturn experienced the fastest-paced recovery, Clear Capital is now examining whether the housing market, in fact, follows the allegory of “The Tortoise and the Hare.” The analytics firm observed price movement and offered its predictions for the new year in its Home Data Index released Monday.”

Regulator Reports Improving Loan Performance for 4th Straight Quarter
“The performance of first-lien mortgages serviced by large national and federal savings banks continued to improve in the third quarter of 2013, reports the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). It marked the fourth consecutive quarter the agency has recorded greater loan performance among regulated entities.”

United Wholesale Ranks No. 1 Among Wholesale Lenders in Q3
“United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), one of the nation’s fastest-growing wholesale lenders, has good reason to celebrate going into 2014: The company was ranked on MortgageStats.com as the No. 1 wholesale lender in the country for the third quarter of 2013.”

Homes’ Days-on-Market Remain Low in November
“Following a post-summer slowdown in the market, homebuyers across the nation put a little more force on the accelerator in November.”

Housing Recovery Remains on Firm Footing as Americans’ Housing Sentiment Bounces Back From an Autumn Dip
“WASHINGTON, DC – Year-over-year gains in Americans’ attitudes toward homeownership demonstrate that the housing recovery continues to move forward on firm footing despite a drop in housing sentiment during the fall, according to Fannie Mae’s December National Housing Survey results.”

Renewal of jobless benefits clears Senate hurdle
“(Reuters) – A White House-backed bill to renew jobless benefits for 1.3 million Americans narrowly cleared a U.S. Senate Republican procedural roadblock on Tuesday.”

MBA: Mortgage Credit Availability Essentially Flat in December
“Mortgage credit availability increased slightly in December, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported this morning in its Mortgage Credit Availability Index.”

QM Fails to Deter Bank from Offering IO Loans
“Bank of the West will keep originating and holding in portfolio the interest-only loans that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s new rules assign more liability to starting Friday.”

Home prices increase 11.8%
“Home prices, including distressed sales, escalated 11.8% in November 2013 when compared to a year earlier, representing the 21st consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally.”

Mortgage credit loosens a bit
“Accessing mortgage credit is getting a bit easier, a new report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says.”

Failure to launch generation: Why household formation for younger Americans continues to lag while home prices soar. 46 percent of younger Americans living with older family members.
“Many are giddy about the rise in home prices.  Yet gains in home prices with no subsequent gain in income are merely a repeat of the previous bubble with a different tune.  In the last bubble, the memory has seemed to faded, the impetus for funky loan products came because incomes were not rising and products that offered additional leverage were taken up to mask the growing decline of wages.  In the last couple of years, the tinder that lit this latest run came from the Fed’s artificially low rate eco-system.  The difference this time is that the gains in home prices largely went to big investors that now dominate the market.  In the midst of all this trading, the homeownership rate has fallen.  Household formation for younger Americans is dismal.  The economy officially exited the recession back in the summer of 2009 (half a decade ago this summer).  So why is housing formation so weak when it comes to younger households if the economy is supposedly booming?”

US dominates list for foreign real estate investors
“Global real estate investors are flocking to the U.S.”

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Real Estate News 1.3.2014

Job search: One year and counting…
“Lena Rouse has merely one resolution for 2014: Finally get a job.”

The smart home is a pipe dream
“At next week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the tech industry will try to convince us that our homes will be completely automated in the next five years. Don’t believe the hype.”

Sell your home without a real estate agent
“How do I sell my home without using a real estate agent? — Bill, Chicago”

Luxury sales drive Manhattan home prices higher
“New York’s new mayor is vowing to shrink the divide between the wealthy and everyone else. But when it comes to the real estate market, he is facing an uphill battle.”

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac got $7.9 billion in bank settlements in 2013
“WASHINGTON —  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collected $7.9 billion from large financial institutions to settle suits over bad mortgage-backed securities purchased by the seized housing finance giants during the subprime housing boom, their federal regulator said.”

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac may be too profitable to shut down
“WASHINGTON — Federal officials swooped in to rescue mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008 with the largest of all the financial crisis bailouts — a combined $187.5 billion — because they were considered too big to fail.”

Morningstar Executive Gives Assessment of New CFPB Rules
““Under the new CFPB [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau] rules, servicers will have to provide very detailed and accurate information to borrowers about each aspect of their loans and/or any foreclosure procedures that may occur,” according to Richard Koch, SVP at Morningstar Credit Ratings.”

Industry Completes 50K Loan Modifications for Homeowners in October
“The HOPE NOW Alliance recently announced that an estimated 50,000 homeowners received permanent, affordable loan modifications from mortgage servicers during October 2013. This total includes modifications completed under both proprietary programs and the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).”

Alternate Home Price Index Records Weaker Gains
“While the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for October showed a significant 13.6 percent year-over-year leap, other measures saw more subdued gains for the month.”

Average private RE investment vehicle reaches $511M
“The average size of private real estate investment vehicles that closed in 2013 hit $511 million — the highest level recorded by Preqin since the start of its data analysis.”

Residential construction spending hits 2008 levels
“Construction spending on private, residential projects reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $346 billion in November, up 17% over November 2012. That’s the fastest pace since mid-2008.”

Lenders search for plan B
“Lenders and borrowers are looking to other avenues of borrowing as mortgage rates continue to rise and competition heightens among financial institutions.”

2014 housing forecasts filled with euphoria: Estimates looking at higher rates combined with higher prices and stagnant incomes.
“Euphoria unlike housing inventory is in plenty supply when it comes to 2014 real estate forecasts.  The glue holding the housing market comes from investors and generous banking policy.  The one thing about economics unlike other hard sciences is that it happens in real-time.  It also assumes certain rules are fixed but that really act more like clay to fit the whims of the power structure.  It was interesting to see how few analysts at the end of 2012 predicted the massive run-up in real estate prices during 2013.  What is typical of course is that analysts usually go with the momentum so it is no surprise that predictions for 2014 are rosier than they were for 2013 even though most are forecasting higher interest rates and most will acknowledge that this current pace is unsustainable.  Yet higher rates will add pressure on income constrained households.  Investors are already showing signs of pulling back in certain markets.  Let us examine the 2014 real estate forecasting landscape.”

3 ways Dodd Frank law will roil real estate in 2014
“Chris Dodd and Barney Frank have long since retired, but the namesake legislation they craftedfour  years ago is about to unleash sweeping changes in the mortgage and real estate markets.”

Can Selling Real Estate Make You Rich?
“When Roman Serra, a 29-year-old with a master’s degree in art, decided to switch careers, he enrolled in a two-week real-estate course. He took a personality test online and went through a short interview at Chicago real-estate firm Baird & Warner, where he took the class. If he passes his broker’s license examination in January, he is guaranteed a spot as an independent contractor and a desk at one of the company’s 22 offices. He says studying wasn’t difficult compared with his days in college. “I wouldn’t personally consider it intense,” he says.”

AZ real estate player, reality TV star in trouble for operating without license
“PHOENIX (CBS5) – A reality TV star made a name for himself bidding on foreclosed homes. Now he’s underwater, accused of operating without a license.”

Three Northern California Real Estate Investors Agree to Plead Guilty to Bid Rigging at Public Foreclosure Auctions
“WASHINGTON—Three Northern California real estate investors have agreed to plead guilty for their roles in conspiracies to rig bids and commit mail fraud at public real estate foreclosure auctions in Northern California, the Department of Justice announced.”

Real Estate in 2014: A Need-to-Know Guide
“After year of struggles, the housing market roared back to life in 2013. The rebound will continue in 2014, but the pace will slow.”

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Real Estate News 1.2.2014

Buy-and-rent investors get squeezed

“It’s getting harder to make a bundle buying up foreclosures and renting them out.”

Silicon Valley investor: Split California into 6 states

“Is the most populous American state too big for its own good?”

Market Analysts Expect Slowdown in Housing Recovery in 2014

“The housing market recovery is entering a new phase, according to the analysts at Capital Economics. They say the rapid bounce in home prices seen this year, which was driven by investors and tight supply conditions, will soon start to moderate, and the next stage of the recovery will be characterized by strengthening activity among owner-occupants and mortgage-dependent buyers, as well as a much more moderate pace of house price inflation.”

GSEs Reach Foreclosure Prevention Milestone

“As the year closes, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is celebrating a critical milestone.”

U.S. Consumer Confidence Bounces Back

“Consumer confidence saw a boost in December on heightened optimism for the job market, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.”

McLean Mortgage Introduces RateFlex Program

“In Virginia, McLean Mortgage Corporation announced the release of its RateFlex Program, a new concept designed to aid homeowners and prospective homebuyers in today’s volatile interest rate environment.”

U.S. factory, jobs data show underlying strength in economy

“(Reuters) – U.S. factory activity held near a 2-1/2-year high in December and the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell again last week, suggesting the economy was poised for stronger growth in 2014.”

MBA Economic/Mortgage Finance Commentary: Fed Begins Taper; Weakness Persists in Housing

“Recent macroeconomic data paint a picture of a strengthening economy, strong enough that the Federal Reserve is willing to begin to ease its foot off of the gas pedal. However, recent housing market data is not nearly as strong; particularly purchase mortgage application volume which is running 10 percent behind last year’s pace.”

Adjustable-rate mortgages regain popularity as prices, rates rise

“When Michael Shuken recently bought his family’s first home, a four-bedroom in Mar Vista, his adjustable-rate mortgage helped them stay on the pricey Westside.”

Mortgage tax break expires despite bipartisan support in Congress

“WASHINGTON — A 6-year-old tax break for struggling homeowners who won reductions in their mortgages has expired, alarming housing advocates and lawmakers who said it still was needed despite the real estate market rebound.”

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No Longer Posting Real Estate News Articles

Due to my eminent retirement, we will no longer be providing articles on a daily basis. If I find anything that I consider highly interesting or valuable, I will post it. For relevant real estate related articles & postings, please “like” The Norris Group on Facebook and visit their website www.TheNorrisGroup.com. Aaron Norris’ “Real Estate News Round Up” is exceptional!

Also, you can click HERE to see all of the sources that I typically go to for real estate information.  

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Submitting a very low offer on an REO, agent perception

Question:

Hello Tony,

Thanks for your excellent “tip” after the Inland Empire Investors Forum meeting in Corona about pursuing the REO Pendings, instead of the Actives, for any that fall out.

I have one question that I hope you can lend some perspective on.

If the REO Broker’s lender accepted the high, over-listing offer that keeps happening in Moreno Valley on the homes that I’m making offers on… what is the conversation like with the REO Broker when I can still only offer 65 percent of ARV minus repairs, and that isn’t very close to the listing price… lower than probably several other all cash or hard money offers they got the first go-round?

Obviously, your brokers call you and they know what you’ll pay. I am dealing with these brokers for the first time, as I will not use my buyers agent. I’m going to be asking these REO brokers (or their own buyers agent) to write up my offer directly if the pending sale falls out… but it will more than likely be much lower than the asking price.

Because of the over-bids on low REO inventory, I get the feeling I would be upsetting them or getting off on the wrong foot with them with the TNG offer I need to make.

Just curious how you perceive that conversation if you were me (essentially unknown to them), how you think that would go, and is it a risk for the first impression or relationship building you teach in your course.

Also, as I mentioned, I’m interested in your small group mentoring program when you get it up and running again.

Thanks for your consideration.

Best regards,

B.S.

Answer:

Sorry it’s taken so long to get back to you. Here’s the short answer, I never worry about how an agent “feels” about my offers or me, for that matter, that’s counterproductive. Next time you’re speaking to an agent, start the conversation with a question. Ask them this, “If you’re listing a property for sale, and you had one of these two offers to choose from, would you like the highest offer or would you like the one that’s going to close escrow?” Obviously, they would love to have the highest one close escrow. But, in today’s market that’s far from reality. There are just too many hurdles to clear from the moment the offer’s accepted to that closing that can screw up that deal. It’s not your job to educate experienced brokers and agents. But unfortunately, that’s exactly what you end up having to do. And this is exactly the reason why I place such importance and emphasis on you staying on top of the specific day to day changes affecting your target market.

40.5% of buyers could not secure a mortgage. 36.5% of buyers changed their mind. 5.6% of buyers did not have a down payment. 0.0% of owners decided not to sell. And a whole bunch of other ones ran like hell once they figured out how much they’d have to spend on fixing that house.

Do yourself a favor, stop worrying about all the other offers – cash or otherwise. Focus your attention on the numbers that you need to hit so you can secure a profitable deal. Stop listening to your mind giving you all the reasons and excuses why everyone is going to hate you. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times,
“your mind is not your friend.” – Vernon Howard.

Focus on providing a solid offer that you can stand behind and close on without hesitation. Make sure that you remind the agents you’re working with of the percentage of fall outs that are presently being experienced in the market due to all of the reasons that I’ve already stated. Over time, this is what will give your offers their strength and solidify your deals.

This may take a little bit of time and some effort on your part. But just like any other mental conditioning, it’s your job to consistently remind them of the nightmare of accepting a supposedly “higher, better” offer that will, more than likely, crash and burn, in exchange for your superior offer that WILL close escrow and secure them a commission check.

Piece of cake, right?

Best,
Tony

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Soliciting private money for flipping vs. buy & holding

Question:

Hi Tony…and thanks a million for this invaluable forum!

Got one for you about private lenders. I’ve started talking it up. I’m going to focus primarily on flipping in the beginning but I want to hold some as well once I get rollin. When I explain the dual focus some are asking the rate difference. I explain that the rate to retail is higher than holding on rentals. I’d like a better answer.

What should the difference be? If retail is say 9% what would long term be?

(if that was answered in your course…plz forgive me!)

Last one…should the Note provide the ability for the lender to convert if they like? It seems prudent to craft that in with friendly language along the lines of “we have the right to convert” so people know it’s possible from the outset and so I don’t have to go back and explain it once things are in motion.

One person said straight out…”I like the rate and security but aren’t crazy about it being short term.” I’m guessing that on occasion I’ll need to finance out retail money with different lenders who would be happy with less for a longer term. But it would be nice to convert people if I choose and/or if I need to because the property isn’t selling for one reason or another.

Did I say thanks?

Many, many, MANY thanks Tony.

-M.

Answer:

Okay, out of the gate let me just make one point very clear. When you’re trying to solicit money from people that have it, they’re motivation for lending it is as varied and different from one to the other as are grains of sand in the ocean.

You’re job is to attract the money based on the probability of a successful outcome. The two things that anyone lending money is typically focused on is:

1. The return ON their investment
2. And the return OF their investment
(the latter being the most important).

How you structure the notes (conversion) or the interest rates is solely up to you. What they will accept, you’ll soon find out, is solely up to them. I have found that what buys me the most leverage when wanting to skew those negotiations or numbers in my direction, typically have to do more with how good my deals are and how good I am at making them reach a happy and profitable conclusion.

I cannot, in good conscience, give you specific advice on what interest rate you should offer between short-term and long-term money, as I honestly believe this is a moot issue. Industry standards on this topic are clear and available for anyone who cares to look for them. Most investors know they can easily place their money with professional, respected hard money lenders like The Norris Group and earn an easy, effortless 12% on short-term and 9% on eight year financing.

I have found that the more geographically local the investor lender to my specific Target Market, the more familiar they are with my individual properties, my level of knowledge and experience, and successful track record, the more motivated they are to jump on my wagon and the stronger position I hold for negotiating. This typically becomes a “their money is chasing my deals” rather than the other way around.

I hope this helps.

Your friend always,
The Big Cheese
Tony
;D

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Banks not looking at offers less than 85% list price

Question:

Tony:
I am following your course more or less to the letter and made some good listing agent contact. I have to admit I am surprised how these guys are surprised to have me come to their office and just chit chat about general things rather than fly in saying I am an investor and need some good deal. I have never come into their office and said I was an investor and that really seems to take tension down a notch or two. Of the 3 I have met one has already asked me to come again for lunch and he was putting me on his 1 call list. I also have a couple of cash buyers and made a few offers. I am stoked!

One thing all the agents have told me though is the banks (fannie mae) won’t even look at an offer less than 85% of the mls list. The properties I am looking at are for the most part not the ones just on the MLS but older properties and have either been a BOM or had price reductions. Have you faced this “nothing less than 85%” threshold? I am going to keep doing what I am doing but not spend time on the fannie mae and freddie mac properties.

D

Answer:

D, I LOVE YOU! YOU’RE DOING A GREAT JOB! It’s wonderful to see when somebody gets it! It’s not that complicated, is it, D? It’s not like we’re reinventing the wheel here.

The 85% thing is real. However, so are the deals that fall between the cracks. The bottom line is this, all listings that do not sell during the initial listing period MUST be reduced until sold – NO EXCEPTIONS! No one at the lenders office owns this property personally. No one at the lenders office holding the title to this nonperforming dead asset gives a hoot about holding onto this pig longer than they have to, that property has got to be sold at some point. And that always occurs when the listing price is lowered enough to motivate someone to pay for it.

Now here’s the thing, every time an REO listing sells, what I mean by that is goes pending, and then falls out before the close of escrow, the asset manager’s as well as the listing REO broker’s motivation for liquidating that property increases at an alarming rate. When a deal falls out of escrow that’s the time that the REO agent and asset manager are most highly motivated to cut listing price and accept concessions to get rid of that property. And if anyone tries to tell you any different, they are full of crap.

You have to make a lot of offers at your prices, meaning, at prices that make profitable sense to you as an investor. Always respectfully, intelligently, and calmly explain to the listing agent or your buyer’s agent how you’ve arrived at your final offer price. Always remember that if an REO listing agent is hinting at the fact that they do not want to submit the offer on a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac listing because it is not within the 85% of listing price AND you know that number will not work for you, it is important that you explain to the agent not only that that price doesn’t work for you but that you are still interested in purchasing that property once it is reduced to a reasonable listing price. Remember to always leave the agent with those words “I WILL BUY IT.”

One final note, please remember that all of these regulations, these 85% rules, these 90 day restrictions will all get kicked to the curb sooner or later. The problem is we never know how or when. Here is what I do and I suggest you do, stay the course. Ignore the chatter, be aware of these senseless stupid rules and regulations that they keep adding and removing faster than you can spell them. In other words, this market, if anything is fluid, ever changing and will eventually turn completely to our benefit as investors. And the only reason this will happen is because the lenders are completely motivated by greed and self-interest. This is the only thing that you can absolutely unequivocally rely on. These guys will hand us their butt on a plate when they finally realize that is what will put the most money in their pockets. How do ya like them apples?

Big Hug
Love,

Uncle Tony

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Investor funding falls through, now what?

Question:

How can I keep my credibility intact with REO agents when submitting offers if my investor decides for what ever reason not to fund a deal I was expecting him to cover. This could also apply to rehab contractors I suppose.

Is this just the risks that go with using equity partners?…Any thoughts….

-M.

Answer:

To minimize the possibility of destroying your relationship with an REO agent before you even get started, you MUST make sure that you’re investor/partners are solid and committed. One of the ways you can do this is to have a joint venture entity and bank account that they have committed funds to prior to submitting your first offer. However, no amount of legal paperwork or promises are going to hold someones feet to the fire that becomes consumed with fear over their inability to choose wisely. You must spend time with your fellow investors, especially if they’re new to the business, to make sure that they understand the reality of this business and the true profitability of your proposed deals.

The worst thing you can do to yourself is to get anxious and partner up with just anyone because they have a fat bank account. The responsibility of making good decisions falls squarely on YOUR shoulders. You’re the one that has to be aware of who you’re dealing with. You’re the one who’s responsible for your team showing up and doing what they have to do or at least being prepared with one of several back up plans.

If you’re going to hunt bears, you better have more than just one high powered rifle and one bullet. If not, when you’re head’s rolling around on the ground, and your body’s still standing…you’ll have no one to blame but yourself for being way too optimistic.

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Hard Money vs. Private Money

Question:

What’s the difference between a hard money lender and a private investor and does using one have an advantage over the other?

Answer:

Hard money lender – higher costs/fees, higher interest rate, tougher qualifying.

Private investor – Individual, typically no fees, better rates; longer term.

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Purchasing with an entity, no witholding tax

Question:

I’ve heard that if you buy using an entity, you don’t have to pay some great, big witholding tax (from California)?

Answer:

Questions regarding tax should be directed to your tax person, or attorney. I do not give legal tax advice.

http://www.ftb.ca.gov/forms/06_forms/06_593bk.pdf